> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.delphi.fyi/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.delphi.fyi/create-a-market.md).

# Create a Market

Walk through the six-step flow to create and launch your own information market.

## When to Create a Market

The fastest way to get a market is to ask for one on the [Predict Anything](/predict-anything.md) page, where Delphi prices your prediction and opens the market when you trade.

Creating a market yourself is the manual path. You can do this when:

* Delphi's forecast returned *Forecast Only* and gave you a *Create This Market* button. See [From a Forecast.](#creating-markets-from-a-forecast)
* A similar market already exists and you still want your own version.
* You want custom terms: multiple outcomes, specific wording, or your own settlement criteria.
* You want to be the creator and earn a share of the market's trading fees.

### AI Market Validation

As you build a market, an AI validator sanity-checks every stage of the creation process, which includes your question, outcomes, data sources, the settlement criteria, and timing. It flags issues for you to fix and suggests improvements before you launch the market, many of which are 1-click insertable.

The validator doesn't just check that fields are filled in. It reasons about whether your market is actually resolvable, and where it isn't, it explains the problem and suggests a concrete rewrite.

For example, it will catch:

* **Unmeasurable questions**, like *"Will the USA do well at the World Cup?",* since 'do well' has no measurable threshold. The validator flags it and suggests a rewrite that pins the exact team, threshold, and tournament so the market maps cleanly to a real result (e.g. *"Will the USA reach the semi-finals…"*).
* **Overlapping or weak outcomes,** like *"Yes/No/Maybe/They make the semi-finals"* since, in this case, 'maybe' isn't a real outcome and the last position overlaps with 'yes' given the re-stated question (see above).
* **Vague data sources,** such as naming a parent website (like "FIFA official website") without linking to a specific page that has the data used to settle the market.
* **Timing that doesn't match reality**, which might be the market's timing set to close before the Semi-Finals are even played.

{% hint style="warning" %}
Accepting the suggestions turns a market traders would avoid into one they can trust. The validator is an assistant, not a gatekeeper of quality*.*

It's still on *you* to add the definitions, clauses, and edge cases your specific market needs.
{% endhint %}

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://3382892862-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Ft59pTERBDU0JfP4e2nEP%2Fuploads%2FDqPcXqNpXSazT2lupk9s%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=5ebee00f-e91a-4b08-b9ca-1e6002e6f44c" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

### The Market Creation Process

Anyone can create an information market on Delphi. The creation flow has six steps: **\[1]** Details, **\[2]** Outcomes, **\[3]** Economics, **\[4]** Settlement, **\[5]** Timing, and **\[6]** Review. Click *Create Market* in the footer to get started.

### Step 1: Details

Give your market a clear, specific question that can be definitively resolved by a certain date. The golden template is *"Will X happen by Y?"* where X is a verifiable event and Y is a precise deadline.

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://3382892862-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Ft59pTERBDU0JfP4e2nEP%2Fuploads%2FEaDIEKNVLirUGKJg8jqD%2Fcreate_a_market_1.png?alt=media&amp;token=38485843-60d4-4639-9aa7-32fec4fedcdd" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

You can follow this four-step approach:

1. Identify what you actually want to know: *"Will it rain in Los Angeles this weekend?"*
2. Find an authoritative data source that can answer it. (e.g., the Weather Underground's historical precipitation data)
3. Determine a reasonable timeline. How long does the market need to run for the answer to become knowable?
4. Now write the question so that it maps cleanly to that source and timeline.

Your data source should inform how you phrase the question.

For example, "*Will it rain in Los Angeles on April 20, 2026?*" is vague, because 'what counts as rain' can be relative, like a light misting versus a light rain. A stronger version of the question would be as follows:

> "Will Weather Underground report precipitation greater than 0.00 inches for Los Angeles, CA on April 20, 2026?"

Now there's exactly one authority, one location, one threshold, and one date.

#### Data Sources in Titles vs. Settlement Criteria

If you have a very specific resolution source, put it in the title. It helps traders understand what they're trading on at a glance. It also differentiates similar markets that resolve on different sources.

For instance, two markets could both ask about rainfall in Los Angeles. One could resolve on Weather Underground and the other on the National Weather Service. These are fundamentally different markets.

If the source is general or self-evident, leave the title clean. Make sure it appears in the market's data sources and settlement criteria instead.

{% hint style="info" %}
There's no single right answer here. It depends on whether specificity or readability matters more for your particular question.
{% endhint %}

### Step 2: Outcomes

This is where you define the possible outcomes for your market: you need at least two, with a maximum of 20 outcomes permitted.

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://3382892862-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Ft59pTERBDU0JfP4e2nEP%2Fuploads%2FHPTOj4eMnqh7Kqg7cJ7P%2Fcreate_a_market_2.png?alt=media&amp;token=35e30ee7-2fad-4208-bb6e-a499449a3e2a" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

For a straightforward yes/no question, "Yes" and "No" will be prefilled. If your market has more nuance, you can add custom outcomes (up to 90 characters each).

Outcomes must be **\[1]** exhaustive, **\[2]** non-overlapping, and **\[3]** accurate.

1. **Exhaustive** means every possible real-world result falls into exactly one of your outcomes. There should be no scenario where the answer is "none of the above."
2. **Non-overlapping** means no result could reasonably fit into two different outcomes. If you're defining numeric ranges (e.g., temperature brackets like 0°F–30°F, 30°F–60°F, 60°F–90°F), make sure boundaries are precise by specifying whether each boundary is *inclusive* or *exclusive*, and state your rounding rule in the settlement criteria. If it's 30.0°F exactly, which bucket does it fall into? This must be unambiguous.
3. **Accurate** means the outcomes faithfully represent the possibilities. Don't leave out a plausible result just because it seems unlikely.

#### Covering Edge Cases

When defining your outcomes, consider whether something could reasonably happen that falls outside your listed options: a game getting cancelled, a tournament being delayed past your market's expiry, or any scenario where none of your outcomes cleanly apply.

If that's a realistic possibility, add a catch-all outcome (e.g., *"Other / Event cancelled / No result by expiry"*). This gives the market a clean resolution path even if things don't go as expected, and gives traders who anticipate that scenario an outcome to trade on.

{% hint style="info" %}
A catch-all is **not** the same as a "maybe" outcome.

"Maybe" is vague and overlaps with your real outcomes. It isn't resolvable. A good catch-all is narrowly defined for a specific scenario your other outcomes can't cover, such as *"N/A: match postponed past market close."*

The validator will flag a "maybe"-style outcome and ask you to either remove it or define it precisely.
{% endhint %}

### Step 3: Economics

This is where you set up the financial parameters of your market. You can either choose an LMSR (recommended) or DPM market here, as well as choose how much liquidity to provide for your market.

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://3382892862-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Ft59pTERBDU0JfP4e2nEP%2Fuploads%2Fc5VjtN0FpEBFnahJDsYi%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=bfb4b203-9933-48ed-ab62-0cf9de2ca761" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

### 3.1: LMSR & DPM Market Mechanisms

Every Delphi market uses one of two mechanisms. You'll see which one on every market card and market page:

* **Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR)**: The price of an outcome is its probability. Each winning share pays $1.
* **Dynamic Parimutuel Mechanism (DPM)**: Traders buy into a pool. Winners split the pool.

LMSR is the recommended type and the default when you [create a market](/create-a-market.md). All markets opened through [Predict Anything](/predict-anything.md) are LMSR, though DPM continues to be available for manual market creation.

#### Comparison of Market Mechanisms

|                                                        | **LMSR**                                                                                                                                                 | **DPM**                                                                                                                                     |
| ------------------------------------------------------ | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| *How trading works*                                    | Buy shares to move the price toward the probability you believe. Every trade shifts it immediately.                                                      | Buy shares to claim your stake of the total pool.                                                                                           |
| *What the odds label means*                            | Probability: the price of a share, and the market's estimate of how likely the outcome is                                                                | Sentiment: the share of the pool on each outcome                                                                                            |
| *Chart*                                                | Market Probability Chart                                                                                                                                 | Market Sentiment Chart                                                                                                                      |
| *Outcome row*                                          | Pays 1.49× if correct                                                                                                                                    | <p>Example:<br><br>$2,340.00 in pool ($0.42/share)</p>                                                                                      |
| *Your return*                                          | Fixed when you trade. Later trades don't change it.                                                                                                      | Estimated. Changes as others trade.                                                                                                         |
| *Selling*                                              | Sell any amount, from 1% to 100% of a position                                                                                                           | Whole position only                                                                                                                         |
| *Trade size*                                           | Each outcome has a maximum trade the market can absorb. The app tells you the most you can trade.                                                        | No per-outcome ceiling                                                                                                                      |
| *What a share pays when the market settles*            | $1 per winning share                                                                                                                                     | A proportional share of the pool                                                                                                            |
| *What a share pays when market closes with No Outcome* | Prices freeze at trading close and each share pays its final price (a share priced at 12% pays $0.12). Claimed from Payouts in [Activity](/activity.md). | Positions pay at final market prices. Claimed from Payouts in [Activity](/activity.md). The creator's seeded liquidity is used to pay them. |
| *What the creator funds*                               | Funding that sets the market's liquidity. The creator starts with no shares.                                                                             | A refundable deposit plus seed shares spread evenly across every outcome                                                                    |
| *What the creator gets back*                           | Some or all of the funding, depending on where the market lands                                                                                          | The deposit (guaranteed) plus the seeded position in the winning outcome                                                                    |
| *What the creator earns*                               | Trading fees, plus a payout from the losing side at settlement if available                                                                              | Trading fees, plus the seeded position in the winning outcome                                                                               |
| *Settlement*                                           | [Automated](/how-ai-settlement-works.md)                                                                                                                 | [Automated](/how-ai-settlement-works.md). Older *Legacy* markets are settled [manually](/settling-a-market.md) by their creator.            |

{% hint style="info" %}
On LMSR markets, the $1 payout only applies when the market settles to a winning outcome. If it closes with No outcome, each share pays its final market price instead. [See What Does "No Outcome" Mean?](/how-ai-settlement-works.md#what-does-no-outcome-mean)
{% endhint %}

### Initial Liquidity

Initial liquidity (and how many shares you do or don't have) depends on the market mechanism you choose.

{% hint style="danger" %}
On either market type, your funding may not be fully recovered.
{% endhint %}

#### LMSR: Funding

Enter a funding amount, or use the slider. Your funding sets the market's liquidity: the more you add, the less each trade moves the price.

The *cost to move a price* calculator is informational, not a market setting. It shows what your funding buys by estimating how much a trader must spend to move an outcome’s price by 5%, 10%, 25%, or 40%.

*Maximum Loss* shows the most you can lose as the creator, while *What You Earn* summarises your fee share and settlement payout. You must meet the minimum funding amount before you can continue.

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://3382892862-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Ft59pTERBDU0JfP4e2nEP%2Fuploads%2FxMPXl3XUg4kijApV355w%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=0caf9c14-bfce-4463-92ab-d79db33ba67b" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

You start with no shares, so your funding isn't a bet on any outcome. If nobody trades, it all comes back at settlement.&#x20;

You lose part of it when traders correctly move the price toward the outcome that wins, up to the maximum loss shown, and you can get back more than you put in when they back an outcome that loses.&#x20;

{% hint style="info" %}
Your share of trading fees is paid on top of whatever portion of liquidity is returned.
{% endhint %}

#### DPM: Initial Liquidity

Your initial liquidity is split into a refundable deposit and seed shares spread across every outcome, so you effectively hold a position on every outcome.

As traders buy into specific outcomes, your share of those pools is diluted. Depending on how trading plays out, you may not recover the full amount. This is expected: supplying liquidity is a form of market-making and carries risk, especially in low-volume or one-sided markets. Trading fees can offset this but aren't guaranteed to.

If the market closes with *No Outcome*, your seeded liquidity is used to pay positions at the final market prices.

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://3382892862-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Ft59pTERBDU0JfP4e2nEP%2Fuploads%2FuKUKhzLVEsg8AqBHmWYF%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=8f3a4f60-091e-489b-aab4-7acc7d5c86c1" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

#### Why LMSR is Recommended

* The price is the probability. A price of 67% means the market thinks the outcome is 67% likely. That's easier for people, and for agents, to reason about than a pool split.
* Your payout is known up front. You know what a share pays when you buy it.
* Thin markets stay tradable. Liquidity is built into the market, so there's always a price to buy or sell at, even before many people have traded.
* More control over your position. You can [sell part of a position](/explore-and-trade.md#selling-a-position) rather than all of it.

#### DPM Risk

On a DPM market, traders buy into a pool and winners split it, so payouts are estimates that move as others trade, and a position can only be sold in full.

DPM markets can also show price instability when liquidity is low, and prices may move sharply on small trades near settlement.

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://3382892862-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Ft59pTERBDU0JfP4e2nEP%2Fuploads%2FxCAyks3czBOsDLoMPGmJ%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=0301d56c-4ae8-4588-9deb-51937bfb6cee" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

#### Trading Fee

The default trading fee percentage is 2% on every trade in a given market.

As the creator, you'll receive a percentage of the trading fees on total traded volume in your market, paid when the market settles. The exact share is shown in the app and currently differs by market type.

### Step 4: Settlement

Automated Settlement is the process Delphi uses to resolve the market after trading closes. Delphi configures the analyst and judge models. Their roles appear as read-only details.

> *You do not choose a judge model or run settlement yourself.*

Delphi generates suggested data sources and settlement criteria from your question and outcomes. Review and edit them if needed: this is the contract between you and your traders. The settlement workflow follows them after close.

A final AI validation check flags ambiguity, incomplete outcomes, weak sources, and timing problems before publication.

#### Review the Suggested Data Sources

Review the generated list and edit it if needed. Prefer primary, official, and durable sources.

{% hint style="info" %}
You should always point to a specific page rather than a generic site name.
{% endhint %}

An undefined source like "FIFA official website" is weak, whereas a link to the official World Cup results or bracket page gives the settlement workflow and traders reliable evidence. The validator flags generic, unavailable, stale, or poorly matched sources.

These sources appear on the market page. They show participants exactly what evidence the market resolves on.

#### Review the Generated Settlement Criteria

Settlement criteria are market-specific rules that map evidence to an outcome. Confirm that they specify:

* What evidence determines the answer.
* Relevant dates, time zones, thresholds, and definitions. For numeric ranges, make boundaries precise and state the rounding rule.
* How each possible result maps to an outcome. State exactly when an "Other" outcome applies.
* What happens if an event is postponed, cancelled, or never occurs.
* Which source takes priority when sources conflict.

Criteria cannot override Delphi's settlement system. They also cannot instruct models to ignore the market's question or outcomes.

{% hint style="warning" %}
Take your time with market creation. Automated Settlement does not fix an ambiguous market. Incomplete questions, outcomes, or criteria can prevent a winning outcome.

You must add the definitions, clauses, and edge cases your market needs.
{% endhint %}

{% hint style="info" %}
For a deeper explanation of settlement after close, see [How Automated Settlement Works](/how-ai-settlement-works.md).
{% endhint %}

### Step 5: Timing

This is where you set when your market closes to new trades. There are some quick-set times available, or you can choose a custom date and time.

You can also choose how long the automated settlement pipeline waits before firing off (1-12 hours after market close).

Your market should close before the outcome is knowable. Once the answer becomes obvious, trading is no longer meaningful. For example, if your market asks *"Will the sun rise in New York City on April 15?"*, close it well before dawn (say, 4:00 AM ET), not after traders can look outside and already know.

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://3382892862-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Ft59pTERBDU0JfP4e2nEP%2Fuploads%2FNFjn1wVF5UfemyCXh5L9%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=fcb2a8f7-203e-410b-a549-fd305fee79fe" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

### Step 6: Review

This is the final step in the market creation flow. Delphi runs a final AI validation check on the completed market. Review and address its suggestions before publishing.

The review page shows everything you've configured: **\[1]** category, **\[2]** question, **\[3]** outcomes, **\[4]** trading fee, **\[5]** market type (LMSR or DPM), **\[6]** settlement type (Automated), **\[7]** analyst and judge models, **\[8]** data sources, **\[9]** settlement criteria, **\[10]** trading close, **\[11]** automated settlement timing, **\[12]** initial liquidity, and the **\[13]** market creation fee.

Review everything, click confirm, and your market goes live!

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://3382892862-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Ft59pTERBDU0JfP4e2nEP%2Fuploads%2FJTtNiH8KToqhqMixcW0M%2Fcreate_a_market_6.png?alt=media&amp;token=fc8b7c6e-28ec-4145-9e8f-773eeff2f361" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

{% hint style="success" icon="shield-keyhole" %}
Before you publish, AI Market Validation runs a final check across your question, outcomes, data sources, settlement criteria, and timing. Resolve any flagged issues or accept the suggested rewrites for a market that is clean, resolvable, and trustworthy. [See AI Market Validation](#ai-market-validation).
{% endhint %}

### Creating Markets From a Forecast

When Delphi's forecast returns *Forecast Only* (via [Predict Anything](/predict-anything.md)), the card offers the option to *Create this Market.*

Selecting it opens this flow with the question, outcomes, close time and a settlement draft already filled in from the forecast.

* **Check everything.** The draft is a starting point. Delphi didn't open the market because something about it needed a human decision, often the settlement source. The validator runs as usual.
* **The market starts at even odds.** Delphi's forecast isn't carried over. The first traders set the price.
* **You're the creator.** You fund the market and earn the creator's share of fees, like any market you create.

{% hint style="danger" %}
Some forecast-only predictions can't be created at all, including ones where a single person could easily control the outcome. These don't show the button. See [Predict Anything](/predict-anything.md).
{% endhint %}

### After Your Market Goes Live

Once your market is active, traders can start buying and selling positions on the outcomes. You can monitor your market's activity from the [Activity](/activity.md) page under the *My Markets* tab.

{% hint style="info" %}
Two additional notes:

1. Use the [Leaderboard](/leaderboard.md) to compare creator earnings and market activity across Delphi.
2. Only existing *Legacy* markets use manual settlement. See [Legacy Manual Markets](/settling-a-market.md#legacy-manual-markets) for the required post-close actions.
   {% endhint %}


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