Explore & Trade

Browse active markets, understand market cards, and buy or sell positions on outcomes.

Navigating Delphi

The Markets page is where you browse active information markets and place trades. This page covers how to find markets, read market cards, buy and sell positions, and understand your payouts.

Browsing Markets

When you land on the Markets page, you'll see a grid of market cards showing all active markets. Each card represents a single information market.

You can filter markets by category using the row of category buttons near the top of the page.

By default, "All" is selected, so you'll see all available active markets.

Two Market Mechanisms

Every market card and market page carries a badge showing its mechanism:

• LMSR: Buy shares to move the price toward the probability you believe. Every trade shifts it immediately.
• DPM: Buy shares to claim your proportional stake of the total pool if the event happens.

The two work differently when you trade, sell, and get paid. For a side-by-side comparison, read this.

Understanding Market Cards

Each market card gives you a quick snapshot of that active market.

• Title: The market's question (e.g., "Will The Weather Underground Report Rain in LA More Than 0.1" By 4:00:00 PM UTC on April 28th 2027?").
• Status: Whether the market is active, pending settlement, settled, closed with no outcome, or removed.
• Category: Which category the market falls under.
• Market Type: The LMSR or DPM badge.
• Automated Settlement: Automated markets are settled by Delphi after trading closes rather than manually by the creator. See How Automated Settlement Works.
• No Outcome: No winning outcome was declared. Positions are paid at final market prices.
• Legacy tag: Markets created before Automated Settlement are tagged as Legacy.
• Sentiment / Probability: You will see the market sentiment (odds) and probabilities (depending if the market is LMSR or DPM) for each outcome.
• Liquidity: How much liquidity is in the market. Note that this has different implications for LMSR or DPM markets.
• Close Date: When the market stops accepting trades.
• Creator: The creator's name or shortened wallet address. Select it to open their Profile.

Markets opened through Predict Anything look like any other market. Their creator is Delphi.

Inside a Market

Click any market card to open the full market view. At the top, you'll see a header banner with the market title, status, category, creator address, leading outcome, total trade count, and when the last trade was placed.

There's also a share button in the top-right to copy a direct link to the market.

Below the header, the page is organized into several sections:

• Place a Trade: Select the outcome you want to trade on, toggle between Buy and Sell, enter the amount in USDC, and click Trade. Your current wallet balance is displayed below the input field, along with the trading fee for that market.
• Market Stats: This shows the trading fee percentage, total volume, and the created, closes, and settles dates and times.
• Market Sentiment Chart: A line chart showing how sentiment across outcomes has shifted over time.
• Current Sentiment: A set of progress bars showing the current probability distribution across all outcomes.
• AI Settlement: For automated markets, displays the analyst and judge model roles, the market's data sources, and the settlement criteria. After settlement, this is where you'll find View Settlement Report. For more details, see How Automated Settlement Works.
• Creator Stats: The creator's wallet address, market counts, and all-time volume. Select the creator to open their Profile.

On markets opened through Predict Anything, the first trade in the history is Delphi's opening trade, which moved the price from even odds to Delphi's forecast. The chart starts from it.

Creator Profiles

Every creator has a public profile. Select a creator on a market card, in Creator Stats, or from All Markets to open it.

Profiles show a creator's markets and track record. Learn how to browse profiles and manage your own in Profile.

To compare creators before opening their markets, visit the Leaderboard. It ranks creators by earnings and links to each public profile.

Buying a Position

To buy a position in a market:

1. Open the market and go to the Place a Trade section.
2. Make sure Buy is selected.
3. Select the outcome you want to buy into.
4. Enter the amount of USDC you want to commit.
5. Click Trade.

The confirmation shows the market, your outcome, the shares you'll receive (after the price impact of your own trade), and the total including the trading fee.

On LMSR markets

• Each outcome row shows the payout multiple you receive if that outcome wins.
• Enter an amount to preview your total return and profit if your chosen outcome wins. These values lock in when you trade. Later trades do not change them.
• Each outcome has a limit on how much the market can absorb in one trade. If you go over it, you'll see "This trade is larger than this market can absorb" and the largest amount you can use. Select that amount to fill it in.
• The confirmation includes your payout if the selected outcome wins. Your share count is fixed once the trade goes through. Each winning share pays $1. If the market closes with No outcome, shares pay their final market price instead.

On DPM Markets

• Each outcome row shows the amount in the pool and the price per share.
• Payouts are not fixed. They change as other trades are placed before the market closes.

Your Position(s)

Once you hold a position, My Position appears on the market page, with [1] each outcome you hold, [2] what you paid, [3] your shares, and [4] what the position would be worth if you sold now. The value shows green when it's above your cost.

My Payout Preview shows what each outcome you hold would pay. Note that these are different depending on what type of market mechanism was used to create that market:

• LMSR: Each share pays $1 if that outcome wins, so the figure doesn't change as others trade. (If the market closes with No outcome, shares pay their final market price instead.) What the position is worth if you sell now still moves with the market.
• DPM: An estimate based on current liquidity, which changes as others trade.

Selling a Position

Select Buy or Sell from the dropdown and select the outcome you hold, and confirm. You can also select Sell next to a holding in My Position to sell from a pop-up without leaving your place.

• LMSR: Sell any part of a position, from 1% to 100%, using the slider or Max.
• DPM: Selling liquidates your entire position in that outcome. Partial sells aren't supported.

Sell quotes are at the current price, which can move before your transaction confirms.

If you try to sell an outcome you don't hold, the app will let you know you don't have a position to sell.

What Happens When a Market Closes

At its close time, a market stops accepting trades and enters settlement.

Delphi runs the declared settlement workflow, and the market page shows whether settlement is scheduled, running, settled, or closed with No Outcome. Markets automatically settle within 48 hours of trading close.

If a winning outcome is selected, winning shares become claimable from the market page or Claimable in Activity.

• LMSR: Each winning share pays $1.
• DPM: Winning shares split the pool.

If the market closes with No Outcome, positions pay at the final market prices when trading closed. On an LMSR market, a share priced at 70% pays $0.70. You can claim these from Payouts in Activity.

Payouts from a market that closes with No Outcome are based on final market prices. They may be higher or lower than what you originally paid. This is not a traditional refund. See What Does "No Outcome" Mean?