> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.delphi.fyi/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.delphi.fyi/predict-anything.md).

# Predict Anything

Write a prediction, read the forecast card, and challenge the odds.

## Overview

This guide covers how to write a prediction, explains the forecasting process, shows how to trade on markets, and more.

### Write a Prediction

Type into the box and select *Get Odds.* You can write a statement (*"Arsenal will win the Premier League"*) or a question (*"Will Arsenal win the Premier League?"*).

If you write a statement, Delphi marks the side you backed as your pick. It's selected for you if you decide to trade, but nothing is bought until you confirm, and you can switch sides first. A question gets priced without a pick.

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://3382892862-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Ft59pTERBDU0JfP4e2nEP%2Fuploads%2FwsmE4GlGL7lYVH7TJxd0%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=f9cfea0f-8541-457a-bff3-81805796e945" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

Good predictions have an outcome someone could check from public information and a date by which it will be known. For example, *"Bitcoin will close above $100k on December 31, 2026"* works whereas *"Crypto will do well"* doesn't.

{% hint style="info" %}
Need an idea? Tap a suggestion under the box to load it.
{% endhint %}

### How Forecasting Works

Once you make your prediction, Delphi's forecasting service gets to work by:

1. **Reading your prediction.** Delphi rewrites it into a precise question with a close time. You might type *"fed cuts in september*" but the card will say *"Will the Federal Reserve cut rates at its September 2026 meeting?"* The rewrite is the market exactly as it would be created.
2. **Searching for current information.** This only occurs when the question needs live facts.
3. **Working out the odds.** Determining the most realistic, tradable odds for that market.&#x20;

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://3382892862-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Ft59pTERBDU0JfP4e2nEP%2Fuploads%2F90N20Uh8gkY3U9zhn6PI%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=9ab83856-3d53-4780-9231-ac761cd41b83" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

### Reading the Forecast Card

The forecast card is Delphi's offer: **\[1]** the market it would open, **\[2]** the odds it would open at, and **\[3]** how long that price holds.

At the top is the question as Delphi has rewritten it. That's the exact market that would be created, so check it matches what you meant.

Just below, a label tells you whether the prediction is *Tradable*, meaning Delphi will open a market if you trade, or *Forecast Only*, [meaning you get odds but no market.](#forecast-only)

Next come Delphi's odds for each outcome, with the price of a share beside each one. If your prediction took a side, it's marked as **your pick**. The main button changes to match what you'd be doing: challenging the odds, backing the favourite, or signing in first. A countdown next to it shows how long the price is good for.

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://3382892862-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Ft59pTERBDU0JfP4e2nEP%2Fuploads%2F3nNlyiCJkZqhxl1AAjaN%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=f35497c1-c165-4845-b1ce-773ac7e7aa63" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

Below the offer are two sections you can expand:

* **Forecast reasoning:** Why Delphi landed on these odds, and the thing to weigh if you think it's wrong.
* **Settlement:** The criteria, data sources and close time the market would settle on.

#### Forecast Only

If you see *Forecast Only,* it means Delphi priced your prediction but won't open a market for it. You still get everything else on the card: the odds, the reasoning, the settlement terms, and the option to share it.

The most common reasons for seeing this are:

* **It can't be settled from public information.** Delphi drafts settlement terms and checks the data sources before any market exists. If it can't find a public source that could decide the outcome, or the question is still ambiguous after rewriting, it won't open a market it might not be able to settle.
* **It resolves too soon.** If the answer will be known within a few hours, nobody else has time to trade.
* **The outcome is close to certain.** If Delphi's forecast is below 2% or above 98%, there's little left for a market to discover.
* **One person could easily decide it.** If the outcome is something a single person could make happen at little cost to themselves, like whether a particular account posts something tomorrow, the market would be easy to manipulate. Questions about widely followed public figures can still be tradable.

#### When There's No Forecast

Sometimes Delphi won't give you odds at all. A prediction that breaks Delphi's content policy is refused outright. So is text that isn't actually a prediction. You may need to tighten the wording and try again with something that has a checkable outcome.

If you've hit the hourly limit on forecasts, the message tells you when you can ask again.

### The Countdown and Repricing

Each quote lasts about three minutes, then there is an automatic repricing.

Delphi starts repricing in the background before the countdown ends. The new odds replace the old ones, and an *Odds* updated line lists only the outcomes that moved (for example, `Yes 38.2% -> 41.3%`). You can keep using the current offer until the new one lands.

{% hint style="info" %}
Requotes build on the last price rather than starting over.
{% endhint %}

#### "This Already Exists"

If your prediction closely matches a live market, a panel appears above the forecast with a link to that specific market. Delphi won't open a duplicate, so trade in the existing market.

If the match is looser, the panel is headed *Related* markets. Select *Ignore* to dismiss it and carry on. Your forecast stays usable either way.

### Challenge the Odds

Once you're signed in, you can place a trade.

1. If you haven't signed in and connected a wallet, see [Get Started](/get-started.md).
2. Select *Place a Trade.* A dialog opens over the card, so the odds stay in view.
3. Pick an outcome. Your pick is preselected if your statement took one.
4. Enter an amount greater than $1 USDC. Your balance and a *Max* button sit beside the field.

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://3382892862-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Ft59pTERBDU0JfP4e2nEP%2Fuploads%2F8T4MIzrdAKVJf4ovy7dv%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=44d358a9-6c18-40df-80bc-2e947f4c8a9e" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

5. Check the quote: the shares you'd receive, average price, payout if you're right, the trading fee, and the odds your trade would leave behind.
6. Select *Review Position.* The next step restates the numbers and produces the *Trade* button.
7. Click *Trade*. Delphi opens the market and fills your trade in one transaction.
8. You land on the market page, with your trade in the history after Delphi's opening trade.

#### Requesting a Requote

Odds are only available for a certain amount of time at the current price. If you wait too long before purchasing shares in one of the available outcomes, the quote can expire. This means you will need to *Request new odds* before you are able to place a trade.

### After the Market Opens

After the final step, you've successfully executed a trade on a newly-opened Delphi market. From here, you can view the market's page, the market's stats, the settlement criteria, trade history, and more.

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://3382892862-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Ft59pTERBDU0JfP4e2nEP%2Fuploads%2Fdlk5jlJWr2F2fsppR90g%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=47a0e073-812e-4469-91bc-ee49b67dcceb" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

### The Loop

When you ask Delphi about the future on the [Predict Anything](/predict-anything.md) page, an AI system analyzes public sources to convert your query into a precise question, returning a probability and the full rationale for that reasoning.

When you decide to trade on a forecast, Delphi automatically **\[1]** creates the market, **\[2]** seeds liquidity, **\[3]** sets the initial price to match the forecast via an opening trade, and **\[4]** fills your order in a single transaction. Each quote updates every few minutes to reflect real-time news and data.

Delphi opens markets only when valid settlement terms and public data sources can be established, avoiding questions that resolve too quickly, have near-certain outcomes, or risk manipulation.

{% hint style="success" %}
By taking the initial counterparty position, Delphi incentives users to trade when they possess *better* information, since correct user trades help continuously refine and improve future forecasts.
{% endhint %}

### FAQs

Find quick answers about forecasts, pricing, market creation, and trading.

<details>

<summary>Who am I trading against when I challenge the odds?</summary>

Delphi. When you commit, Delphi creates the market, funds it, moves the price to its forecast, and takes the other side of your trade, all in one transaction. After that the market is open to everyone.&#x20;

</details>

<details>

<summary>Why was my prediction "Forecast only"?</summary>

Delphi gave you odds but won't open a market, usually because no public source can settle it, it resolves within a few hours, the forecast is below 2% or above 98%, or one person could easily decide the outcome.&#x20;

</details>

<details>

<summary>Why did the odds change while I was reading?</summary>

*Odds* are only good for a few minutes. Delphi reprices in the background and shows *Odds* updated with what moved.

</details>

<details>

<summary>Why is "Get a new price" greyed out?</summary>

There's a short minimum wait between manual requotes.

</details>

<details>

<summary>How many markets can I open, or forecasts can I ask for?</summary>

There's a daily limit on markets each wallet can open through [Predict Anything](/predict-anything.md) and an hourly limit on forecasts. If you reach one, the app tells you when you can try again.

</details>

<details>

<summary>My market failed to open. Was I charged?</summary>

No. If the market and your trade don't both go through, your stake is returned.

</details>

<details>

<summary>Is Delphi's forecast ever wrong?</summary>

Yes. That's the point. If you know something the forecast doesn't, you can trade against it and get paid for being right.

</details>


---

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